1997 US Agricultural Census &
National Resources Inventory (NRI)
Discrepancies Outlined
On December 8, 1999, with a great deal of fanfare, Vice-President Gore announced the results of the Department of Agriculture National Resources Inventory, which he claimed indicated an acceleration in the loss of agricultural land to urban development. Texas and Pennsylvania were said to have lost more than two million and one million acres to development respectively.
A number of researchers questioned the credibility of these numbers. For one thing, the claimed loss of agricultural land was at considerable variance with the data published by the US Department of Agriculture Census covering the same 1992 to 1997 time period. For example, The Agricultural Census found that farm land was reduced over the period in Pennsylvania by 22,000 acres, while the NRI found a reduction of 900,000 acres. Even more out of line were the results in Texas, where the Agriculture Census had reported a 420,000 acre increase in agricultural land, while the NRI found a reduction of 2,100,000 acres.
The NRI data for the agricultural classifications of cropland, agricultural reserves, pasture land and range lands have historically tracked comparatively closely to the Census of Agriculture's farm land classification. At the national level, the NRI figure was within 0.3 percent in 1992, and within 0.2 percent in 1997. However, very significant differences are found in the 1997 state by state data.
The Census of Agriculture is an enumeration, while the NRI is based upon a sampling procedure.
Within the last month, the Department of Agriculture has withdrawn its data from the Internet and issued announcements that there were errors in the data. Corrected data is scheduled for release in June.
Wendell Cox, Demographia principal, and others had attempted to obtain clarification of these discrepancies soon after the December release, but no response was received.
This document contains the following tables:
1. Agricultural acreage in 1992 and 1997 based upon the Census of Agriculture.(enumeration)
2. Agricultural acreage in 1992 and 1997 as estimated by the National Resources Inventory (sampling)
3. Variances between the two.
4. State ranking of variances
5. Text of the April 19 National Resources Inventory announcement.
Agricultural Acreage by State (Census of Agriculture)
|
State |
AGCEN-1992 |
AGCEN-1997 |
AGCEN-CH |
% CHANGE |
|
Alabama |
8,450.8 |
8,704.4 |
253.6 |
3.0% |
|
Arizona |
35,037.6 |
26,866.7 |
(8,170.9) |
-23.3% |
|
Arkansas |
14,127.7 |
14,365.0 |
237.3 |
1.7% |
|
California |
28,979.0 |
27,698.8 |
(1,280.2) |
-4.4% |
|
Colorado |
33,983.0 |
32,634.2 |
(1,348.8) |
-4.0% |
|
Connecticut |
358.7 |
359.3 |
0.6 |
0.2% |
|
Delaware |
589.2 |
579.6 |
(9.6) |
-1.6% |
|
Florida |
10,766.1 |
10,454.2 |
(311.9) |
-2.9% |
|
Georgia |
10,025.6 |
10,671.2 |
645.6 |
6.4% |
|
Hawaii |
1,588.8 |
1,439.1 |
(149.7) |
-9.4% |
|
Idaho |
13,469.0 |
11,830.2 |
(1,638.8) |
-12.2% |
|
Illinois |
27,250.3 |
27,204.8 |
(45.5) |
-0.2% |
|
Indiana |
15,618.8 |
15,111.0 |
(507.8) |
-3.3% |
|
Iowa |
31,346.6 |
31,166.7 |
(179.9) |
-0.6% |
|
Kansas |
46,672.2 |
46,089.3 |
(582.9) |
-1.2% |
|
Kentucky |
13,665.8 |
13,334.2 |
(331.6) |
-2.4% |
|
Louisiana |
7,837.5 |
7,876.5 |
39.0 |
0.5% |
|
Maine |
1,258.3 |
1,211.6 |
(46.7) |
-3.7% |
|
Maryland |
2,223.5 |
2,154.9 |
(68.6) |
-3.1% |
|
Massachusetts |
526.4 |
518.3 |
(8.1) |
-1.5% |
|
Michigan |
10,088.2 |
9,872.8 |
(215.4) |
-2.1% |
|
Minnesota |
25,666.9 |
25,994.6 |
327.7 |
1.3% |
|
Mississippi |
10,188.4 |
10,124.8 |
(63.6) |
-0.6% |
|
Missouri |
28,546.9 |
28,826.2 |
279.3 |
1.0% |
|
Montana |
59,642.5 |
58,607.8 |
(1,034.7) |
-1.7% |
|
Nebraska |
44,393.1 |
45,525.4 |
1,132.3 |
2.6% |
|
Nevada |
9,263.7 |
6,409.3 |
(2,854.4) |
-30.8% |
|
New Hampshire |
385.9 |
415.0 |
29.1 |
7.5% |
|
New Jersey |
847.6 |
832.6 |
(15.0) |
-1.8% |
|
New Mexico |
46,849.3 |
45,787.1 |
(1,062.2) |
-2.3% |
|
New York |
7,458.0 |
7,254.5 |
(203.5) |
-2.7% |
|
North Carolina |
8,936.0 |
9,122.4 |
186.4 |
2.1% |
|
North Dakota |
39,438.1 |
39,359.3 |
(78.8) |
-0.2% |
|
Ohio |
14,248.0 |
14,103.1 |
(144.9) |
-1.0% |
|
Oklahoma |
32,143.0 |
33,218.7 |
1,075.7 |
3.3% |
|
Oregon |
17,609.5 |
17,449.3 |
(160.2) |
-0.9% |
|
Pennsylvania |
7,189.5 |
7,167.9 |
(21.6) |
-0.3% |
|
Rhode Island |
49.6 |
55.3 |
5.7 |
11.5% |
|
South Carolina |
4,472.6 |
4,593.5 |
120.9 |
2.7% |
|
South Dakota |
44,828.1 |
44,354.9 |
(473.2) |
-1.1% |
|
Tennessee |
11,169.1 |
11,122.4 |
(46.7) |
-0.4% |
|
Texas |
130,886.7 |
131,308.3 |
421.6 |
0.3% |
|
Utah |
9,624.5 |
12,024.7 |
2,400.2 |
24.9% |
|
Vermont |
1,278.5 |
1,262.1 |
(16.4) |
-1.3% |
|
Virginia |
8,297.0 |
8,228.2 |
(68.8) |
-0.8% |
|
Washington |
15,726.0 |
15,179.7 |
(546.3) |
-3.5% |
|
West Virginia |
3,267.2 |
3,455.5 |
188.3 |
5.8% |
|
Wisconsin |
15,463.6 |
14,900.2 |
(563.4) |
-3.6% |
|
Wyoming |
32,876.1 |
34,088.7 |
1,212.6 |
3.7% |
|
United States |
944,608.5 |
930,914.3 |
(13,694.2) |
-1.4% |
Note: NRI data not gathered for Alaska
Source: United States Department of Agriculture |
Agricultural Acreage by State (National Resources Inventory sampling)
|
State |
NRI-1992 |
NRI-1997 |
NRI-CHANGE |
% CHANGE |
|
Alabama |
7,519.9 |
7,035.8 |
(484.1) |
-6.4% |
|
Arizona |
33,674.8 |
33,385.2 |
(289.6) |
-0.9% |
|
Arkansas |
13,923.4 |
13,337.8 |
(585.6) |
-4.2% |
|
California |
28,722.9 |
28,255.6 |
(467.3) |
-1.6% |
|
Colorado |
35,973.1 |
35,873.8 |
(99.3) |
-0.3% |
|
Connecticut |
338.1 |
306.0 |
(32.1) |
-9.5% |
|
Delaware |
525.9 |
494.9 |
(31.0) |
-5.9% |
|
Florida |
11,234.9 |
10,208.2 |
(1,026.7) |
-9.1% |
|
Georgia |
8,831.9 |
8,109.8 |
(722.1) |
-8.2% |
|
Hawaii |
1,311.0 |
1,278.9 |
(32.1) |
-2.4% |
|
Idaho |
14,178.6 |
14,015.2 |
(163.4) |
-1.2% |
|
Illinois |
27,650.5 |
27,204.8 |
(445.7) |
-1.6% |
|
Indiana |
15,799.4 |
15,553.3 |
(246.1) |
-1.6% |
|
Iowa |
30,856.9 |
30,555.1 |
(301.8) |
-1.0% |
|
Kansas |
46,960.2 |
46,701.3 |
(258.9) |
-0.6% |
|
Kentucky |
11,442.4 |
11,095.2 |
(347.2) |
-3.0% |
|
Louisiana |
8,687.7 |
8,365.0 |
(322.7) |
-3.7% |
|
Maine |
589.4 |
530.5 |
(58.9) |
-10.0% |
|
Maryland |
2,244.0 |
2,070.7 |
(173.3) |
-7.7% |
|
Massachusetts |
445.7 |
385.0 |
(60.7) |
-13.6% |
|
Michigan |
11,639.3 |
10,764.6 |
(874.7) |
-7.5% |
|
Minnesota |
26,551.3 |
26,293.8 |
(257.5) |
-1.0% |
|
Mississippi |
10,535.9 |
9,792.9 |
(743.0) |
-7.1% |
|
Missouri |
27,081.1 |
26,360.8 |
(720.3) |
-2.7% |
|
Montana |
58,508.0 |
58,318.1 |
(189.9) |
-0.3% |
|
Nebraska |
45,622.1 |
45,504.9 |
(117.2) |
-0.3% |
|
Nevada |
9,299.6 |
9,283.5 |
(16.1) |
-0.2% |
|
New Hampshire |
239.8 |
223.1 |
(16.7) |
-7.0% |
|
New Jersey |
809.0 |
683.0 |
(126.0) |
-15.6% |
|
New Mexico |
43,319.9 |
42,792.3 |
(527.6) |
-1.2% |
|
New York |
8,708.2 |
8,055.7 |
(652.5) |
-7.5% |
|
North Carolina |
8,123.0 |
7,650.0 |
(473.0) |
-5.8% |
|
North Dakota |
39,628.1 |
39,448.7 |
(179.4) |
-0.5% |
|
Ohio |
14,579.4 |
13,806.9 |
(772.5) |
-5.3% |
|
Oklahoma |
33,180.5 |
32,753.1 |
(427.4) |
-1.3% |
|
Oregon |
16,075.3 |
15,743.3 |
(332.0) |
-2.1% |
|
Pennsylvania |
8,048.0 |
7,146.8 |
(901.2) |
-11.2% |
|
Rhode Island |
48.2 |
43.9 |
(4.3) |
-8.9% |
|
South Carolina |
4,460.6 |
3,986.5 |
(474.1) |
-10.6% |
|
South Dakota |
42,385.1 |
42,266.2 |
(118.9) |
-0.3% |
|
Tennessee |
10,569.8 |
9,925.6 |
(644.2) |
-6.1% |
|
Texas |
143,903.2 |
141,797.8 |
(2,105.4) |
-1.5% |
|
Utah |
13,535.5 |
13,307.6 |
(227.9) |
-1.7% |
|
Vermont |
983.8 |
943.7 |
(40.1) |
-4.1% |
|
Virginia |
6,317.1 |
6,020.3 |
(296.8) |
-4.7% |
|
Washington |
14,898.6 |
14,649.5 |
(249.1) |
-1.7% |
|
West Virginia |
2,516.1 |
2,350.7 |
(165.4) |
-6.6% |
|
Wisconsin |
14,454.1 |
14,081.5 |
(372.6) |
-2.6% |
|
Wyoming |
30,653.3 |
30,748.9 |
95.6 |
0.3% |
|
United States |
947,584.6 |
929,505.8 |
(18,078.8) |
-1.9% |
NRI Variance from Census of Agriculture
|
State |
NRI-VARIANCE |
NRI-% VAR. |
|
Alabama |
(737.7) |
-9.4% |
|
Arizona |
7,881.3 |
22.5% |
|
Arkansas |
(822.9) |
-5.9% |
|
California |
812.9 |
2.8% |
|
Colorado |
1,249.5 |
3.7% |
|
Connecticut |
(32.7) |
-9.7% |
|
Delaware |
(21.4) |
-4.3% |
|
Florida |
(714.8) |
-6.2% |
|
Georgia |
(1,367.7) |
-14.6% |
|
Hawaii |
117.6 |
7.0% |
|
Idaho |
1,475.4 |
11.0% |
|
Illinois |
(400.2) |
-1.4% |
|
Indiana |
261.7 |
1.7% |
|
Iowa |
(121.9) |
|